May's dispute between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah is an interesting example of the contest between hollow states and virtual states over legitimacy and sovereignty. As in most conflicts between gutted nation-states and aggressive virtual states, Hezbollah's organic legitimacy trumped the state's in the contest (an interesting contrast between voluntary affiliation and default affiliation by geography). The fighting was over in six hours.
4GW-Global Gorilla
Created By: boatsie
Last Modified: 05/22/08
global thermodynamic system
he benefit of
using the "Thermodynamic Crisis" as a framework is that it is a
relatively complete and simple explanation for many of the global
trends we are currently seeing. It also appeals to a scale that is
beyond the noise generated by cycles of introspection (at the
political, social, and economic levels) that forces analysis paralysis.
As John Boyd points out in "Destruction and Creation":
...we find that the uncertainty and disorder generated by an inward-oriented system talking to itself can be offset by going outside and creating a new system. Simply stated, uncertainty and related disorder can be diminished by the direct artifice of creating a higher and broader more general concept to represent reality.
To repeat: by moving up the scale to a global thermodynamic systems approach, we can start to see the outlines of the real situation. A situation not adequately modeled by global and (even less) national political/economic analysis. Keep this in mind when I begin to expand this framework in the next months.
parallel communications
What's more interesting than the actual fighting is what the conflict
was about. In summary, the government made an attempt to slow the
expansion Hezbollah's fiber optics network, which provides
secure/robust communications and surveillance (via automated cameras)
to the group. Specifically, the government tried to shut down
surveillance nodes of the network overlooking Beirut International Airport.
Hezbollah responded by defining the network as a core part of its
organization and that they were willing to defend it with violence if
necessary.
From: http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/
hollow v virtal states
From: http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/
guerrilla catalyst
pen source insurgencies and resilient communities are both
decentralized networks. Critical to the success of both are people that
serve as catalysts (like Henry Okah and Rob Hopkins).
What do catalysts do? They accelerate growth and effectiveness by
increasing the trust and connectivity of the networks they inhabit.
From: http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/
attributes/outcomes
actics
4GW is fought on the tactical level via:
4GW is fought on the tactical level via:
- Rear area operations -- 4GW warriors do not confront a nation-state's military but rather it society.
- Psychological operations -- terror.
- Ad-hoc innovation -- use of the enemy's strengths against itself.
Generations of Warfare
The generational development of warfare can be outlined as:
- First generation -- wars of Napoleon, conscription and firearms (the decline of mercenaries).
- Second generation -- the US civil war and WW1, firepower and nation-state alignment of resources to warfare.
- Third generation -- WW2, maneuver and armored warfare.
- Fourth generation -- ad hoc warriors and moral conflict.
Differences
Many of the methods
used in 4GW aren't new and have robust historical precedent. However,
there are important differences in how it is applied today. These
include:
- Global -- modern technologies and economic integration enable global operations.
- Pervasive -- the decline of nation-state warfare has forced all open conflict into the 4GW mold.
- Granularity -- extremely small viable groups and variety of reasons for conflict.
- Vulerability -- open societies and economies.
- Technology -- new technologies have dramatically increased the productivity of small groups of 4GW warriors.
- Media -- global media saturation makes possible an incredible level of manipulation.
- Networked -- new organizational types made possible by improvements in technology are much better at learning, surviving, and acting.
Winning a 4GW conflict
Victory in
4GW warfare is won in the moral sphere. The aim of 4GW is to destroy
the moral bonds that allows the organic whole to exist -- cohesion.
This is done by reinforcing the following (according to Boyd):
- Menace. Attacks that undermine or threaten basic human survival instincts.
- Mistrust. Increases divisions between groups (ie. conservatives and liberals in the US).
- Uncertainty. Undermine economic activity by decreasing confidence in the future.
definition
Definition
4GW can be defined as a method of warfare that uses the following to achieve a moral victory:
- Undermines enemy strengths (this may seem obvious, but most of modern warfare has involved direct attacks on enemy strengths -- find the enemy army and destroy it).
- Exploits enemy weaknesses.
- Uses asymmetric operations (weapons and techniques that differ substantially from opponents).
Drivers
The rise of 4GW is both a product and a driver of the following:
- The loss of the nation-state's monopoly on violence.
- The rise of cultural, ethnic, and religious conflict.
- Globalization (via technological integration).
From: http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2004/05/4gw_fourth_gene.html
